Joined Nov 2010
14,406 Posts | 4,143+
Cornwall
The thing about Justinian Plague is that it actually lasted for 2 centuries with occasional outbreaks in different parts of the ancient world.
That's the reason why it is often considered as one of major factors of the Arab conquest. The Arab world had not been affected, the disease mainly afflicted the population of Byzantine and Sasanian empires
J.A. S. Evans convincingly argues in his book on the period that in the initial outbreak half of the population or more dead is actually a very plausible estimate. Gas bubbles trapped in ice-sheets imply a massive population decline, Procopius describes such a decline, by the year 600 population in the area was only 60% of what it had been a century before and the disease in question was a new strain, to which people consequently had no resistance, which did have the attributes for killing such amounts of people.
Do we really know it was the same plague for 200 years? There are frequent references to plague in Visigothic history, yet scant in substance as is the nature of that era. Heck they are now questioning whether bubonic plague was indeed that, 700 years later, so who knows? Plus plagues fade away when remaining populations have resistance as Dorgedrogt says, so likely new/different strains at least
But plague was indeed one of the very many weakening factors of the Visigothic kingdom, possibly to the extent of claiming King Witiza and ultimately leading to the regnal dispute which Rodrigo was involved in at the time of the arabic led crossing. Garcia Moreno - today's leading Visigoth-watcher - opines that the absence of any references to Witiza's death suggests it was of some sort of natural cause - as opposed to the usual blood-letting in Visigothic society. And, given his fairly young age and the proliferation of 'plague' - it could well be that.
I'd also note that the collapse in Byzantine army strength was partly due to the plague and partly having basically spent all the money on buying peace treaties among other things