Can the Death Toll of African Colonization Be Estimated?

Kanfari · May 6, 2025

Sambor1308 said:
I think that your figure is vastly overestimated.

According to "Polish Statistical Yearbook of 1938" Africa's total population in 1935 was 148.2 million.

And according to "Polish Statistical Yearbook of 1939" Africa's population in 1936 was 151.7 million.

Well, if you'd like, you can read the researchers' paper and let them explain their process. Based on their authority and prestige, I'm somewhat inclined to believe them, but I'm not in a position to claim certainty.

Sambor1308 · May 6, 2025

Kanfari said:
Well, if you'd like, you can read the researchers' paper and let them explain their process. Based on their authority and prestige, I'm somewhat inclined to believe them, but I'm not in a position to claim certainty.

You wrote that this 400 million was based on AI (ChatGPT) not on any research.

In the research paper which you linked they actually say 145 million in year 1890.

Sambor1308 · May 6, 2025

Kanfari said:
Yes. The 400 million figure is an estimate of the total African population from 1884 to the late 1990s. I wanted to determine what percentage of the population died as a result of colonialism. Since colonialism in Africa spanned several decades (about 80 years), I compiled all the figures provided by the Harvard researchers and attempted to derive a cumulative total African population during the colonial era. This would allow me to sum up the various recorded instances of massacres I could find and calculate what percentage of that cumulative total died due to colonialism.

Ah okay in such case 400 million might be fine (if it is the number of all people who lived in Africa during the entire period).

Kanfari · May 6, 2025

Sambor1308 said:
You wrote that this 400 million was based on AI (ChatGPT) not on any research.

In the research paper which you linked they actually say 145 million in year 1890.

No I wrote it was 400 million based on Research. Might be someone else's research but it's still research. (Also, I used deepseek, not chatgpt. Not that it matters).

Sambor1308 said:
Ah okay in such case 400 million might be fine (if it is the number of all people who lived in Africa during the entire period).

Exactly

GIJoe · May 6, 2025

Kanfari said:
No I wrote it was 400 million based on Research. Might be someone else's research but it's still research. (Also, I used deepseek, not chatgpt. Not that it matters).

Exactly

In this case I don't see the research you linked as supporting the number of 400 million.

In the first case it affords figures for the years 1870, 1890 and, 2000 which offers nothing on which to base a figure for the specific period of 1884 to 1990.

The closest approximate range based on table 4.1 would give us a population of 662 million between 1890 and 2000 rather than 1884 to 1990.

The other two big issues I'm seeing here is the need to account for the AIDS crisis, by using 1990 you have to adjust your figure to consider that and, the need to differentiate between the "Native" and, "Non-Native" portions of the Population of the African Continent during this period. I don't actually see anything specific in the paper which supports making that particular distinction.

Kanfari · May 7, 2025

GIJoe said:
In this case I don't see the research you linked as supporting the number of 400 million.

In the first case it affords figures for the years 1870, 1890 and, 2000 which offers nothing on which to base a figure for the specific period of 1884 to 1990.

The closest approximate range based on table 4.1 would give us a population of 662 million between 1890 and 2000 rather than 1884 to 1990.

The other two big issues I'm seeing here is the need to account for the AIDS crisis, by using 1990 you have to adjust your figure to consider that and, the need to differentiate between the "Native" and, "Non-Native" portions of the Population of the African Continent during this period. I don't actually see anything specific in the paper which supports making that particular distinction.

Well, what can I say? I'm not a math guy. However, I will say that my figure comes from simply summing all the numbers in the second link, which details deaths directly attributable to colonialism. I'm not sure where I'd get even a semblance of accurate data for indirect deaths which can also be attributed to colonialism.

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