I dont think so. Poland is already much more tied with Germany than with Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary. Poland is one of the few countries in Europe which export to Germany as much as import from Germany, and big part of Polish export are parts of bigger things which are later exported by Germans. So if German export is raising, Polish is imidatelly following it. Germany is the biggest trade partner of Poland and export of German goods to Poland is much bigger than for example to Russia. All other combined Visegrad states are not able to replace Germany as trading partner.
Poland and Turkey: Next great powers of Europe
- Thread starter Irish Yankee
- Start date
I dont think so. Poland is already much more tied with Germany than with Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary. Poland is one of the few countries in Europe which export to Germany as much as import from Germany, and big part of Polish export are parts of bigger things which are later exported by Germans. So if German export is raising, Polish is imidatelly following it. Germany is the biggest trade partner of Poland and export of German goods to Poland is much bigger than for example to Russia. All other combined Visegrad states are not able to replace Germany as trading partner.
Joined Aug 2009
6,122 Posts | 473+
Londinium
Except this time the conquest and subjugation of other nations wont be as straight forward.
Unless you mean the foot rest? That could happen
Joined Aug 2009
6,122 Posts | 473+
Londinium
From experience, i thought you were being serious.
Im sure the people of former ottoman territories are just as realistic as I am
Joined Apr 2012
925 Posts | 2+
Obviously, since you are the authority on this subjectIm sure the people of former ottoman territories are just as realistic as I am
British empire was so great.
Joined Aug 2009
6,122 Posts | 473+
Londinium
Obviously, since you are the authority on this subject
I am fully aware of what the British Empire did, and what empires do to make their empire...including your beloved Ottomans.
No need to be an expert to see that.
It was as good or as bad as anyone person or nation.I am under no illusions and don't buy into politicians (or people) using History for their own agenda.
But anyway, thank-you, although i personally had nothing to do with its establishment or dissolution, its always nice to have your country's past complimented.
Anyway, lets not get into the Ottomans here....another thread, another day.
Joined Jul 2012
42 Posts | 0+
BC, Canada
Read this book and found it very compelling though I wouldn't follow all his thoughts through as fully as he does. Turkey in particular I'm interested to watch in coming years and decades to see if it exerts any secularizing influence on neighbour states. I'm no expert on Russia but it does seem like it has some major demographic and structural issues to go along with it's political heft. I would imagine a sucessful Eurasian Union could give an economic boost that could revitalize infrastructure and technology spending, though I do wonder about the sheer manpower issues and how immigration would be best accomplished to meet those needs withouth adding further political dissent and "western" thought. Agreed with those previous that say the Czech republic is one to watch as well.
Joined Jan 2012
3,888 Posts | 3+
seychelles
agreed. actually japan was also somewhat like south korea before. i guess this model works. but not always. what happened to malaysia? in mid 90s wasnt malaysia gonna be a 5th asian tiger? at least i thought malaysia's economy was strong.
anyways, if i come back to turkey we lack a good education (especially universities) and a tax system for small sized companies. but a better higher education system is of much higher priority.
Joined Jun 2012
15,528 Posts | 2,868+
Malaysia
We got whacked by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. But we've bounced back and we're still chugging along, I think. And we keep trying to learn from the development experiences of other countries that have succeeded, like Korean and Japan, and apply their experiences to ourselves, with modifications.
Our GDP per capita, on both nominal basis and purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis, currently is comparable to that of Mexico and Turkey, and about three quarters that of Poland.
What I find a trifle discomforting is our debt. I'd prefer Malaysia to gradually throw away the habit of borrowing to finance growth. It's a strategy with substantial attendant risk, I believe.
So you're originally from Turkey then. Perhaps Turkey could try experimenting with the twinning concept for its universities, in cooperation with established universities from the more developed universities from Europe, like those of Britain, France and Germany, for instance. That's what we're doing in Malaysia as one of the ways to fast-track the development of our education infrastructure.
We can't rely on organic and indigenous growth alone. It'll be too slow.
Joined Jan 2010
13,690 Posts | 14+
♪♬ ♫♪♩
I hear Czechia being mentioned. I don't believe in countries that don't have access to the seas. Belgium's second king, aptly named Léopold the Second, the one who took possession of the Congo, said a country that has access to the sea isn't a small country.
Okay, he had to say something to himself.
Okay, he had to say something to himself.
Joined Jul 2009
12,444 Posts | 21+
Anatolia
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After all there are good engineers, workers, enterprenours ... human capita who actually stir the economy up. They know their work pretty well, and produce good quality products. They respect their work. They wouldn't stop when the time is off, but when the work is off, which is ethic rule here.
Taxe and education system are problem, but they aren't preventive problems for Turkey.
Welfare of the country is growing in spite of you.
Joined Nov 2011
6,052 Posts | 167+
Confoederatio Helvetica
In regard to Poland, I have to agree with Mosquito here. Of course, Poland has old ties with Lithuania, Belarus and the Ukraine, and maybe for historical reasons is seen more favorable than Germany by countries like the Czech Republic and Slovakia. However, I don't consider Poland strong enough to establish its own zone of influence in Central/ Eastern Europe. The cultural differences with Eastern Europe (that is, Belarus and the Ukraine) are too pronounced, and the smaller states like the Baltic states, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are proud of their independence, and partly oriented towards Germany for economic and historic reasons.
I think that the real aim of Poland, and a more realistic one, is to grow in importance within the framework of the European Union. Currently, there are four "big" states (UK, France, Italy, Germany). The UK has never been willing to develop its full influence on Europe, Italy has suffered from political instability, leaving France and Germany as the real drivers of the European Union. Spain has been an important contender, but is seriously weakened by the current crisis for years to come. With increasing economic weight and political stability, Poland could therefore play a bigger role and thus finally fulfil its desire to be fully accepted as a partner in European politics.
Joined Nov 2011
6,052 Posts | 167+
Confoederatio Helvetica
Turkey has established itself as a leading regional power. However, this is not only due to the strong performance of the Turkish economy, but also due to the weakness of neigboring countries like Iraq and Syria.
Turkey brings with it several advantages, such as the global and dynamic city of Istanbul and a society more secular than most other states with a majority Muslim population. However, people should not get unrealistic in view of the current economic growth: There will be setbacks, and in every boom, there could be a bubble.
Turkey still has many deficits it should work on; as some previous posters mentioned, education is one of the main problems. Other issues are the strong influence of the military and a potential awakening of a nationalist or an islamist agenda. Also, Turkey will have to learn to cope with its new power and not to frighten its neighbors.
Turkey brings with it several advantages, such as the global and dynamic city of Istanbul and a society more secular than most other states with a majority Muslim population. However, people should not get unrealistic in view of the current economic growth: There will be setbacks, and in every boom, there could be a bubble.
Turkey still has many deficits it should work on; as some previous posters mentioned, education is one of the main problems. Other issues are the strong influence of the military and a potential awakening of a nationalist or an islamist agenda. Also, Turkey will have to learn to cope with its new power and not to frighten its neighbors.
Joined Jan 2012
3,888 Posts | 3+
seychelles
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Grimald is right. Turkey is a regional power compared to its neighbors. if you look at them one by one:
bulgaria: depends on agriculture and tourism, both seasonal. no significant heavy industry (the biggest one currently is şişecam glass factory and that was an investment by turkish capital. just sayin' ).
greece: need i say anything?
armenia: 2nd worst economy in the world last year (according to forbes)
georgia: issues with russia and its autonomous republics, not industrialized, need modernization of old soviet infrastructure.
iraq: heavily "liberated" by usa
syria: civil war ongoing, about to be "liberated"
iran: bigotland
put any country amongst these neighbours and there is a high chance that it will be a regional power really lovely neighbours.
turkey went through an industrialization process after the 1980 coup and still goes on to this day. ok, it's mostly an outsource to foreign corporations and assembly (import dependent) industry but still is an industry and mostly heavy industry. better than having nothing like our neighbours
moreover, turkey is the least religious country amongst its islamic neighbours or the whole islamic countries in the world. which also helps, despite heavy islamization en devour by AKP and parties like it
bulgaria: depends on agriculture and tourism, both seasonal. no significant heavy industry (the biggest one currently is şişecam glass factory and that was an investment by turkish capital. just sayin'
).greece: need i say anything?
armenia: 2nd worst economy in the world last year (according to forbes)
georgia: issues with russia and its autonomous republics, not industrialized, need modernization of old soviet infrastructure.
iraq: heavily "liberated" by usa
syria: civil war ongoing, about to be "liberated"
iran: bigotland
put any country amongst these neighbours and there is a high chance that it will be a regional power
really lovely neighbours.turkey went through an industrialization process after the 1980 coup and still goes on to this day. ok, it's mostly an outsource to foreign corporations and assembly (import dependent) industry but still is an industry and mostly heavy industry. better than having nothing like our neighbours
moreover, turkey is the least religious country amongst its islamic neighbours or the whole islamic countries in the world. which also helps, despite heavy islamization en devour by AKP and parties like it
Joined Mar 2012
2,836 Posts | 16+
New Amsterdam
It was little America's investment, resources, and technology sharing that turned South Korea from third world dictatorship to thriving economic behemoth. The US pours lots of money into its friends, and the Turks know it.
Joined Jan 2012
3,888 Posts | 3+
seychelles
turkey didn't really have much of a choice after the ww2. ussr under stalin didn't really see it as an ally and usa gave a piece of the marshall plan despite turkey didn't participate in ww2, and turkey grabbed that offer. "the little america" position was riveted by 1980 coup and the left took a hell of a beating that still did not recover even to this day.
this is a vague statement. if you are talking about us gvmnt loans (via w.bank and imf) then usa gave loans to turkey but they all came with conditions: "here's some loan for your transport infrastructure buuuut you will only make highways, not railroad". today turkey uses the most expensive or the second most expensive gasoline in the world and 90% of the transport is done on the land routes. turkish railroads are a pathetic joke. "here's some loan for your agriculture buuut you will only buy john deere tractors with this money". "here's some money for the military buuut you will only buy american vehicle/equipment" guess who's selling all the spare parts and providing service? et cetera. USA did not give out these loans just because they love turkey. it's good business.
Joined Nov 2011
6,052 Posts | 167+
Confoederatio Helvetica
infestør has answered your question quite well. I don't necesseraliy say that Turkey enjoyed good governance in the last three decades (in fact, there are many negative issues); however, since the other countries of that region suffered from major setbacks, Turkey has developed into an anchor of stability.
Iran of course also plays an important role, and in principle could be a greater power than Turkey. However, several factors inhibit Iran in achieving a greater role; particularly the consequences of the Islamic Revolution, the anti-American policy, and the nuclear gamble the politicians love to play there. Israel is superior to Turkey in many respects, especially in science and technology, but nevertheless is in a precarious political situation, with a very small territory and population, surrounded by real or perceived enemies.
Indeed Turkey is not independent in its decisions, and heavily depends on the US and the European Union. However, there are very few countries in the world which can follow a really independent policy. Almost all countries in today's world are embedded in a strongly interdependent network and cannot make decisions on their own, be it for economic, political, or military reasons.
Joined May 2011
2,740 Posts | 277+
Sweden
I wouldnt underestimate Iran. Sure their foreign policy may seem centered around supporting Shias solely but they have shown in the past that their foreign policy is not totally geared around Shiaism (for example its support of Christian Armenia against Muslim Shia Azerbaijan). With abundant natural resources and a population of 75 million people, Turkey will have to share the "regional power" tag with Iran in the Middle East. Saudis despite all of their ultra wackoness seem to slowly be moving into the 21st century as well. The rise of the GCC and the immense recent Saudi investment in education and military may be a sign of their intentions. In the Middle East i see a three way battle happening. Gulf Arabs vs Turks vs Iranians. Unfortunately the countries in the middle (Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon) will, and is currently as well their "battle ground".
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