UK, 1990: What if fellow conservatives had talked PM Maggie Thatcher out of local “head tax”?

Multicolored Lemur · May 12, 2022

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1990/03/12/mrs-thatchers-poll-tax/ba44dab3-4549-4177-88f9-7f639fb501c3/

March 3, 1990
Editorial:

“ . . . Mrs. Thatcher's popularity has dipped before, and she has repeatedly managed astonishing recoveries. This time it will be unusually difficult. Inflation is higher than in any other major industrial country and, to combat it, the government has pushed interest rates up to breath-taking levels. Since the floating-rate mortgage is the rule in Britain, that puts a burden directly onto the home-owning middle classes. Meanwhile Mrs. Thatcher's dogged resistance to European monetary union . . . ”

Well, with the miners’ strike in 1984, she was only five years in and thus had plenty of time to reciprocate those who stuck by her. Not true when she had already been in office approaching 11 years.

I’ve heard it claimed that there is an approximate 10 year rule-of-thumb for presidents, prime ministers, governor, any governmental chief executive. And the explanation is that negatives accumulate in the minds of citizens. Well, inability to reciprocate those in office alongside with you, may be another reason as well.

I’m a Yank.

I’m a U.S. citizen and have lived here all my life. I have an interest in UK politics, but realistically, probably only understand it in terms of a second language, at best.

Could fellow Convervative Party members have talked Mrs. Thatcher out of the “head tax” before it became a big public mess?

Haesten · May 12, 2022

Multicolored Lemur said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1990/03/12/mrs-thatchers-poll-tax/ba44dab3-4549-4177-88f9-7f639fb501c3/
March 3, 1990
Editorial:

Well, with the miners’ strike in 1984, she was only five years in and thus had plenty of time to reciprocate those who stuck by her. Not true when she had already been in office approaching 11 years.

I’ve heard it claimed that there is an approximate 10 year rule-of-thumb for presidents, prime ministers, governor, any governmental chief executive. And the explanation is that negatives accumulate in the minds of citizens. Well, inability to reciprocate those in office alongside with you, may be another reason as well.

I’m a Yank.

I’m a U.S. citizen and have lived here all my life. I have an interest in UK politics, but realistically, probably only understand it in terms of a second language, at best.

Could fellow Convervative Party members have talked Mrs. Thatcher out of the “head tax” before it became a big public mess?

The poll tax was popular with me, cut my rates by 50%. 'Rates' was the property tax it replaced, based on an assumed rent you could get for the property.

Naomasa298 · May 13, 2022

You mean "What if Mrs Thatcher hadn't lost power in 1990"?

If that's the question you want to ask, ask that question.

delta1 · May 13, 2022

Multicolored Lemur said:
Could fellow Convervative Party members have talked Mrs. Thatcher out of the “head tax” before it became a big public mess?

No, like many leaders who have been in power for too long, Thatcher had stopped listening to anyone who disagreed with her by 1990.

GogLais · May 13, 2022

Don’t care much for “what ifs” to be honest but Major ended up beating Kinnock fairly comfortably in 1992. I think it’s quite possible that Thatcher would have done the same.

Multicolored Lemur · May 13, 2022

Thatcher rejects poll tax warning - UPI Archives

A squabble enmeshed the ruling Conservative Party Thursday over a warning to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher by a main rival that her poll tax plan is seen...

www.upi.com

May 10, 1990:

“Michael Heseltine, a member of Parliament and a possible successor to Thatcher, wrote in The Times newspaper that the poll tax, or community charge, should be graded by income.

“Local councils should be forced to call an election if they set the tax too high and exceptions should be made for the elderly, the poor and small businessmen, he said. . . ”

.

“ . . . Heseltine, a former defense secretary who resigned after a 1986 dispute with Thatcher over an arms purchase, said there is a belief in key Conservative strongholds that the poll tax is 'either too high, unfair, or both, and it has created a lingering sense of injustice.'

“'There is no realistic prospect that the government will do other than fight the next election with the community charge in place,' he said. 'But most people in my party now agree that it needs considerable modifications.' . . . ”

Keep you friends close and your enemies closer! Thatcher’s senior leadership team should have scouted this out ahead of time.

The senior team, and probably Margaret Thatcher herself, underestimated the opposition by, um, . . . a lot!

Multicolored Lemur · May 13, 2022

Haesten said:
The poll tax was popular with me, cut my rates by 50%. 'Rates' was the property tax it replaced, based on an assumed rent you could get for the property.

In the U.S., property taxes are set by a confusing combo of state and local gov’t. It’s not a logical tax like sales tax in which the imposition of the tax is closely linked to ability to pay. Instead with property tax, for persons who are disabled or retired and on fixed income, you almost have to make exceptions.

You may not be in those categories, and more power to you, but all the same, those rates can creep on up there.

Multicolored Lemur · May 13, 2022

Naomasa298 said:
You mean "What if Mrs Thatcher hadn't lost power in 1990"?

If that's the question you want to ask, ask that question.

I mean, if she hadn’t embarked on something this controversial this late in her tenure.

I suspect she would not have sought re-election in 1992 as PM anyway.

Multicolored Lemur · May 13, 2022

delta1 said:
No, like many leaders who have been in power for too long, Thatcher had stopped listening to anyone who disagreed with her by 1990.

That is another danger of being in power too long.

Multicolored Lemur · May 13, 2022

GogLais said:
Don’t care much for “what ifs” to be honest but Major ended up beating Kinnock fairly comfortably in 1992. I think it’s quite possible that Thatcher would have done the same.

To me, this is a real advantage of a parliamentary form of democracy. You can get a new leader and continue (relatively) smoothly as the governing party. Plus, citizens don’t get the idea like here in the U.S. that a president is going to be able to make all these tremendous changes.

In the 1992 U.S. election, Republican President George H. W. Bush (Bush, Sr.) lost after achieving high approval ratings following the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Generally, because he was not viewed as giving the recession the good ol’ college try.

The 1991 recession was called “the white collar recession,” even though it was 2/3’s blue collar and 1/3 white collar, well, that’s a higher percentage of white collar than is normal for a recession.

So, without a fresh face, I’m not sure the Conservatives win in ‘92.

GogLais · May 13, 2022

Multicolored Lemur said:
To me, this is a real advantage of a parliamentary form of democracy. You can get a new leader and continue (relatively) smoothly as the governing party. Plus, citizens don’t get the idea like here in the U.S. that a president is going to be able to make all these tremendous changes.

In the 1992 U.S. election, Republican President George H. W. Bush (Bush, Sr.) lost after achieving high approval ratings following the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Generally, because he was not viewed as giving the recession the good ol’ college try.

The 1991 recession was called “the white collar recession,” even though it was 2/3’s blue collar and 1/3 white collar, well, that’s a higher percentage of white collar than is normal for a recession.

So, without a fresh face, I’m not sure the Conservatives win in ‘92.

I don’t think she’d have won against Tony Blair or even John Smith but she’d have had a chance against Kinnock.

GogLais · May 13, 2022

Multicolored Lemur said:
In the U.S., property taxes are set by a confusing combo of state and local gov’t. It’s not a logical tax like sales tax in which the imposition of the tax is closely linked to ability to pay. Instead with property tax, for persons who are disabled or retired and on fixed income, you almost have to make exceptions.

You may not be in those categories, and more power to you, but all the same, those rates can creep on up there.

I imagine governments like property taxes because they’re an income stream that isn’t related to how the rest of the economy is performing.

Faramir · May 13, 2022

There are two considerations for me on this topic.

One, is if she had been talked out of the poll tax would a party revolt on another topic unseated her anyway?
She had got rid of a number of cabinet members in her time and probably a number wanted revenge for losing their managerial careers.

The second aspect for me is if she had survived her party and then gone to election whether she would have beaten Kinnock, I think she would though with a much smaller majority making parliament harder to work.

Multicolored Lemur · May 13, 2022

GogLais said:
I don’t think she’d have won against Tony Blair or even John Smith but she’d have had a chance against Kinnock.

At a glance [as a Yank], I can tell you that Dukakis was a weak candidate in 1988 and Bill ....... a strong candidate in 92.

I can’t come close to doing this with party leaders in the UK.

Linschoten · May 13, 2022

The poll tax was a stupid measure because it was so obviously unfair, but it wasn't the only thing that led to her downfall, and I doubt that it would have made much difference if she had agreed to scrap it.

Naomasa298 · May 13, 2022

Well, more interestingly, if John Smith had won the 1992 election, he would have died in office 2 years later.

The rules in such a case would have been unclear, as the UK doesn't have a clear path of succession in the event a prime minister dies in office, but one assumes in that case, Margaret Beckett (as deputy Labour leader) would have become PM. Or, if you take the shadow cabinet of the time, Gordon Brown would have been Chancellor, and possibly next in line.

Gvelion · May 13, 2022

Multicolored Lemur said:
At a glance [as a Yank], I can tell you that Dukakis was a weak candidate in 1988 and Bill ....... a strong candidate in 92.

I can’t come close to doing this with party leaders in the UK.

Why not ? I think many people can tell at a glance that Boris Johnson was a stronger leader in 2019 than Theresa May in 2017.

GogLais · May 13, 2022

Naomasa298 said:
Well, more interestingly, if John Smith had won the 1992 election, he would have died in office 2 years later.

The rules in such a case would have been unclear, as the UK doesn't have a clear path of succession in the event a prime minister dies in office, but one assumes in that case, Margaret Beckett (as deputy Labour leader) would have become PM. Or, if you take the shadow cabinet of the time, Gordon Brown would have been Chancellor, and possibly next in line.

It would have been whoever Labour selected as their leader with I guess Beckett as interim leader/PM.

Naomasa298 · May 13, 2022

GogLais said:
It would have been whoever Labour selected as their leader with I guess Beckett as interim leader/PM.

But would it have been the Labour membership or the parliamentary party doing the selecting?

The 1992 Labour intake would have presumably been Smith loyalists who would have backed Beckett as leader.

"We just got rid of one Maggie!"

GogLais · May 13, 2022

Naomasa298 said:
But would it have been the Labour membership or the parliamentary party doing the selecting?

The 1992 Labour intake would have presumably been Smith loyalists who would have backed Beckett as leader.

"We just got rid of one Maggie!"

It would have been in accordance with whatever mechanism Labour had in place at the time. So in a way it’s a bit odd that the two main parties would have two different ways of choosing the next PM in this situation.
Of course the Conservatives had no official mechanism in place when MacMillan resigned so Alec Douglas-Home “emerged” as the next party leader and PM.

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UK, 1990: What if fellow conservatives had talked PM Maggie Thatcher out of local “head tax”?

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Thatcher rejects poll tax warning - UPI Archives

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