Was the “blanque check” by Imperial Germany the main reason for the start of WWI?

Joined Dec 2011
13,583 Posts | 5,948+
Iowa USA
Correct if I'm wrong but it was my understanding that Gavrilo Princip wasn't an agent of the Serbian govt. Wasn't the ultimatum that AH gave Serbia very unreasonable? If Princip was working for the Serbian govt and was under order from them their might have been some justification. You likely know more than I do here.


The roots of the ultimatum are in the "brokered" resolution of the 1908 annexation of Bosnia. Three great powers perceived a direct interest in the resolution: Italy, Austria and Russia. During negotiations the Russians attempted to link the resolution of Bosnia's status to an Anglo-French concession of rights of navigation into the Mediterranean at Constantinople-Istanbul. The French didn't support the Russians, as the Russian F.M. had made a severe miscalculation.

It seems that by the standards of post WWI principles of national border determination that Serbia had a strong claim to at least 30% of Bosnia's territory. Serbia received of course 0.00% of Bosnian territory. Great difficulties between the Serbian and KuK governments followed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kubis Gabcik
Joined Aug 2016
12,409 Posts | 8,403+
Dispargum
For the role of the French, there is a first person account written by a Russian emigre of the visit Poincare to St. Petersburg. To the extent that the memoir is relatively reliable, the importance of French communications in July 1914 is considerable. My opinion is that had the French signaled in St. Petersburg that the time was poor for war with Germany, then the Russians would have instructed the Serbs to make a different answer to the July 25 Note.

I thought the Serbian reply actually was pretty conciliatory and when Wilhelm II saw it, he said, "This makes the war unnecessary." However, by that late date both Germany and Austria-Hungary had already decided on war.
 
Joined Dec 2011
13,583 Posts | 5,948+
Iowa USA
Last edited:
I thought the Serbian reply actually was pretty conciliatory and when Wilhelm II saw it, he said, "This makes the war unnecessary." However, by that late date both Germany and Austria-Hungary had already decided on war.

If Serbia wasn't assured of the Russian support my opinion is that Serbia would have made no reply, the Army would have allowed to form a dictatorship.

EDIT: getting into the counterfactual is a little bit of a challenge here. At one extreme is zero Russian help to Serbia in July 1914 a virtual repeat of the Bosnian crisis, at the other extreme Russia might have mobilized earlier than they did (July 30) as it was an 'open secret' at the end of the second week of July that German had made the blank cheque.

The reply is very carefully constructed work of an able political thinker, Nikola Pasic. While there is a clear rejection of one point out of ten, it was successful in portraying a desire to negotiate. Lord Grey used the ultimatum to advance the so-called "Belgrade halt" which was apparently consistent with the wishes of Wilhelm. Sadly for peace, Wilhelm's prestige had collapsed among the government. If Nicholas and Wilhelm had been more efficient autocrats there would have been no European war.
 
Joined May 2014
31,535 Posts | 3,565+
SoCal
Serbia some for it's involvement in the Assassination. Russia some for it's encouragement of Serbia, But not that much,

France and Britain not at all.
Did France encourage Russia to stand firm during the July Crisis?

Correct if I'm wrong but it was my understanding that Gavrilo Princip wasn't an agent of the Serbian govt. Wasn't the ultimatum that AH gave Serbia very unreasonable? If Princip was working for the Serbian govt and was under order from them their might have been some justification. You likely know more than I do here.
The question might be to compare the reasonableness of the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia in 1914 to that of the US ultimatum to the Taliban in 2001. Someone else can try doing this.
 
Joined May 2014
31,535 Posts | 3,565+
SoCal
I thought the Serbian reply actually was pretty conciliatory and when Wilhelm II saw it, he said, "This makes the war unnecessary." However, by that late date both Germany and Austria-Hungary had already decided on war.
Your recollection of events is correct.

If Serbia wasn't assured of the Russian support my opinion is that Serbia would have made no reply, the Army would have allowed to form a dictatorship.

EDIT: getting into the counterfactual is a little bit of a challenge here. At one extreme is zero Russian help to Serbia in July 1914 a virtual repeat of the Bosnian crisis, at the other extreme Russia might have mobilized earlier than they did (July 30) as it was an 'open secret' at the end of the second week of July that German had made the blank cheque.

The reply is very carefully constructed work of an able political thinker, Nikola Pasic. While there is a clear rejection of one point out of ten, it was successful in portraying a desire to negotiate. Lord Grey used the ultimatum to advance the so-called "Belgrade halt" which was apparently consistent with the wishes of Wilhelm. Sadly for peace, Wilhelm's prestige had collapsed among the government. If Nicholas and Wilhelm had been more efficient autocrats there would have been no European war.
What's interesting is that AFAIK Serbia had no interest in a new war so soon after fighting two Balkan Wars. Thus, Serbia was willing to be conciliatory but at the same time was unwilling to be completely humiliated.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Castrum 1415
Joined May 2014
31,535 Posts | 3,565+
SoCal
“Merely mobilized”?
The Russians were the first to go to full mobilization. In the thinking of the day this was tantamount to a declaration of war.
Technically speaking, the rate of mobilization was only relevant for Germany due to its adoption of the Schlieffen Plan, no? Had Germany adopted a different strategy (for instance, defense on both fronts), when the Russians would have mobilized would not have been a crucial or decisive question for Germany, correct?
 
Joined May 2014
31,535 Posts | 3,565+
SoCal
the Germans conspired with the Austria Hungarians who they knew would invade Serbia no matter what, they knew for a month that Austria-Hungary would declare war. They knew Austria-Hungary would not have done so without their backing. They also knew this Austria declaration of war would provoke a massive serve crsis, and the other nations would have now only a very short time to do something. That Russian choices were to back down or threaten war, The Germans knew what was coming, they knew there was a large possibility the Russians would mobilize..

I would not go so far as solely, But the with the Austrian-Hungarians they were the principal shapers on events, and the Germans could have easily stopped the war, by no backing Austria-Hungary.
Didn't Kaiser Bill expect a localized war (if any war at all) when he gave a blank check to Austria-Hungary on behalf of Germany, though?
 
Joined May 2014
31,535 Posts | 3,565+
SoCal
Viewpoint 1
Historian Sir Max Hastings and several other eminent historians place the blame for starting WWI squarely on the government of Imperial Germany (IG). Their reasoning is that IG gave the Austrian-Hungarian government a “blanque check” of support in the developing controversy between A-H and Serbia over the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand. This emboldened A-H to punish Serbia even though this action might involve Russia in a war.
Viewpoint 2
Many other historians believe that the blame for starting WWI should be shared by several nations. Decision making and miscalculations by leaders, ministers, ambassadors, etc. of several European countries led to the conflict. Max Hastings and his like minded ilk scoff at this interpretation.

I am interested to know which of these two viewpoints the Historum posters favor.
Post #27 here contains my answer. That said, though, I'd argue that, looking even further back, Germany and Russia bear the largest amount of blame for causing WWI. Specifically, those two countries should have allied with each other rather than against each other. With a German-Russian alliance, A-H would have had to join in if it would have wanted to avoid getting dismembered by the Russo-Germans and the recreation of the Triple Alliance would have ensured that France would not have been able to find a lackey--let alone a strong lackey--who would have allied with it in the hope of eventually waging a joint war against Germany in order for France to recover Alsace-Lorraine.

It's a bit ironic that France allowed itself to be provoked into starting the Franco-Prussian War only to subsequently lose Alsace-Lorraine, whine about it for several decades, and set the alliance system in place for WWI. Ultimately France got Alsace-Lorraine back, but this was only compensation for France's losses during WWI. As in, France lost so many men in WWI that getting back Alsace-Lorraine simply restored its population to its pre-WWI level.
 
  • Like
Reactions: etmore
Joined Oct 2010
17,025 Posts | 4,448+
Didn't Kaiser Bill expect a localized war (if any war at all) when he gave a blank check to Austria-Hungary on behalf of Germany, though?
I don't see that Kaiser's expectation about the results of his actions gets Germany off teh hook for the results of Germany's actions.

Kaiser Bill was not a good diplomat or judge or results of actions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Futurist
Joined Oct 2010
17,025 Posts | 4,448+
Germany and A-H were responsible for sparking a localized war, which Russia proceeded to turn into a World War by backing Serbia.
Austria Was reposnibile for starting a local war, and Germany for turning into a European general war.

It was Austria and Germany that decided to use force.
 
Joined Oct 2010
17,025 Posts | 4,448+
Did France encourage Russia to stand firm during the July Crisis?
Almost certainaly. However it' still Germany the plunges Europe into war and Austria that starts the Balkan war.
Russia merely mobilized. It;s NOT an act of war, it was sign that Russia was wiloing to fight but until Russia did not take the setp to stop talking and stray shooting.
 
Joined Dec 2011
13,583 Posts | 5,948+
Iowa USA
What's interesting is that AFAIK Serbia had no interest in a new war so soon after fighting two Balkan Wars. Thus, Serbia was willing to be conciliatory but at the same time was unwilling to be completely humiliated.

Had the Second Balkan War somehow been averted then I'd be in the same camp as your comment here. The Second War left the situation so unstable that all of the future CP (Germany, Austria, Ottomans with the recently humbled Bulgaria) were suspicious of the Anglo-French-Russian projection of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. After the Balkan Wars, Serbia was de facto relying the goodwill of France to make it through whatever crisis was going to happen.

That's to say as an economically weak player Serbia would have been best served by a period of calm. The Second Balkan War moved events inevitably away from that possibility, worse for the Serbs though was the reaction within Bulgaria to the brutal occupation of Macedonia.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Futurist
Joined Feb 2018
603 Posts | 944+
US
Yes, its a convincing argument. This was an important case study in grad school about learning the weaknesses of many historians in trying to explain events.

Some academics rebel against this kind of 'simple' explanation and try to offer complex, multifaceted arguments that depersonalize events and remove or limit individual blame and agency. But the German Blank Check and the Austrian government's belief that they could get away with it are very strong pieces of evidence that started the domino chain. The Austrian belief s crucial, because during the Baron von Aehrenthal's tenure a few years prior, they had gotten away with bullying their rivals in the Balkans, and they expected to be able to do so again with Germany's backing in 1914.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Futurist
Joined May 2014
31,535 Posts | 3,565+
SoCal
Almost certainaly. However it' still Germany the plunges Europe into war and Austria that starts the Balkan war.
Russia merely mobilized. It;s NOT an act of war, it was sign that Russia was wiloing to fight but until Russia did not take the setp to stop talking and stray shooting.
Did Russia know that Germany would interpret Russian mobilization as meaning war, though?
 
Joined May 2014
31,535 Posts | 3,565+
SoCal
Had the Second Balkan War somehow been averted then I'd be in the same camp as your comment here. The Second War left the situation so unstable that all of the future CP (Germany, Austria, Ottomans with the recently humbled Bulgaria) were suspicious of the Anglo-French-Russian projection of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. After the Balkan Wars, Serbia was de facto relying the goodwill of France to make it through whatever crisis was going to happen.

That's to say as an economically weak player Serbia would have been best served by a period of calm. The Second Balkan War moved events inevitably away from that possibility, worse for the Serbs though was the reaction within Bulgaria to the brutal occupation of Macedonia.
Serbia's occupation of Macedonia was brutal?
 
Joined Oct 2010
17,025 Posts | 4,448+
Did Russia know that Germany would interpret Russian mobilization as meaning war, though?
.

I think No, the Russian were not privy to German war plans. Germany was the only Nation betting the house of their war plan about speeds of Mobilization.

in any event the Germans chose not to talk and shoot instead.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Futurist
Joined Jan 2017
7,817 Posts | 3,302+
Republika Srpska
Serbia's occupation of Macedonia was brutal?
From Bulgaria's point of view, it was. After all, they believed Macedonia was Bulgarian land. Also, there were Serbization attempts, but keep in mind that in the decades before the Balkan Wars, Bulgaria, through the Bulgarian Exarchate, managed to Bulgarize a number of Macedonian Serbs so Serbization was in some ways a reset button.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Futurist

Trending History Discussions

Top