Joined Nov 2011
8,454 Posts | 3,271+
Ohio, USA
Yeah, I will admit that Blaine was sort of the "easy to beat" GOP candidate. This is why I find it so surprising that Blaine almost won in 1884. He only lost New York state by less than 0.10%, or slightly more than 1,000 votes--and this was with the whole "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion" gaffe by one of his supporters (Reverend Samuel Burchard) several days before the election. Without this gaffe, Blaine likely wins even though he was running against "Grover the Good". So, honestly, what this might mean is that Cleveland might have looked better than he actually was and that his love child scandal really could have significantly hurt him--especially in New York state. Cleveland won the New York Governorship in 1882 by a landslide but only barely won New York state in 1884. He also underperformed David B. Hill in New York in 1888, with Hill winning the New York Governorship in 1888 while Cleveland lost New York to Harrison that year by slightly more than 1%.
You should look at the Keys to the White House:
The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
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In 1876, the incumbent party (the GOP) had four keys in its favor, in comparison to six keys in its favor in 1884. So, Yes, based purely on the keys, 1876 was more likely to be a Democratic victory than 1884 was--though in both cases the Democrats were favored. Interestingly enough, in 1876, Tilden actually won the popular vote by 3% while Cleveland only won it by less than 1% in 1884; however, the electoral college barely worked in Cleveland's favor while barely working against Tilden.
What I think it also shows is that state politics and voting are different between those running for state office and those running for national office. Even in years where a particular party and candidate had the advantage with the governorship, the other party may have had the advantage in the presidential election, and this doesn’t even always have to do with the individual candidate themselves- hence Grover winning the governorship by a landslide while barely winning NY in the presidential election just 2 years later. Maybe the scandal with the child born out of wedlock was a lot more publicized in the latter? His response to such attacks were about as good as they possibly could have been and he was an exquisite administrator, but those personal foibles were still harmful to his political chances.